How anyone can not like Fedor as a person and as a fighter is beyond me. The dude is just unreal in the ring and is about as down to earth as a fighter can get. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mind the ones that think they are all that and they definitely have their place in MMA, but having the (in my opinion) #1 P4P fighter in the world as this sort of soft spoken pudgy Russian who doesn’t care about being famous and a big star in the States, is very refreshing. He got a lot of hate for not signing with the UFC considering it was reported to be an obscene amount of money and the UFC caved on some major points. However, we don’t really know what was offered, and we also know the UFC offended Fedor multiple times before. The whole “Fedor being scared” thing was retarded.
That being said, he takes far more risk fighting guys like Rogers. He is a very dangerous fighter with plenty of unknowns. There is no upside for Fedor other than some US face time if he wins. If he loses that face time means nothing. Fedor wins this fight 95% of the time in my opinion, but that 5% loss is much more devastating to his career compared to the boost he will get for a win. If he doesn’t come in and obliterate Rogers, people will call him overrated and all the casuals who expected to see a Mike Tyson esque figure will be disappointed. If he wins in dominant fashion he will gain some casual fan base I’m sure, but it has no upside for the hardcore base because we look at Rogers as a can in comparison to Fedor. Fedor fights who is put in front of him. I have 100% confidence that Fedor would fight anyone in the UFC if it was arranged.
Onto the card itself
Fedor v Rogers
I expect Rogers to come out as usual, swinging for the fences. How Fedor will react to this only he knows. Fedor is one of the rare fighters that really uses his brain and strategizes in the ring. Sure he goes in with a plan that his coaches helped formulate, but when he gets in the ring he knows how and when to adjust and his transitioning is beyond anyone in MMA. If Fedor sees gaps in the bull rush he’ll more than likely stand in and look to capitalize. Personally, I would sidestep it a lot and avoid it for a bit just to take the risk out. Either strategy has the same risk in getting caught, but I think that Fedor’s avoidance would be more than effective against a bull rush from Rogers in my opinion.
The only game we have seen Rogers play is this heavy striker who isn’t very technical. Everything else is pretty much an unknown. This can be very dangerous as you could attempt something and find out Rogers is very proficient in that area, and find yourself in a precarious situation. However when it comes to Fedor, I don’t see Rogers being on the same level in any area except for punching power and I guarantee Fedor matches if not exceeds Rogers in the area. The real question is his takedown and sub game, and it’s not a stretch to say Fedor is leagues above him.
Will Fedor get caught? It’s possible. I imagine Fedor will meet the rush with some looping hooks and look for a chance to drag Rogers to the mat if he doesn’t shake him with his punches, or feels uncomfortable with Rogers stand up. This fight will probably not go past the first round unless Rogers decides to completely change his game and fight at a slower pace and look to use timing more than aggression. Rogers is a recipe Fedor has excelled against for many years, big aggressive strikers. All of them had the punchers chance, yet all of them fell to the Russian Juggernaut. I doubt this will be any different.
Fedor by KIMURA?! – 3:00 Rd1
As for the question: “What type of fighter can beat Fedor?” I hate to admit it, but Brock Lesnar is almost the perfect fighter to be that guy. He nullifies a lot of areas Fedor excels in. I still don’t think Brock has the sub defense to beat Fedor, especially not in a five round fight. I couldn’t see Brock finish Fedor at any point. Sure he punches hard, even knocked out Captain America, but knocking out Fedor is another level. Fedor definitely has the capabilities on his feet to stop Brock standing (granted I highly doubt the fight stays on the feet long enough to find out). However his ground game (especially his Sambo) will be the key difference. Joint locks, especially leglocks (as Mir showed) are especially dangerous to wrestlers who try to unload on their downed opponents. The size difference would be the key issue in the fight, Brock can smother anyone, even big heavyweights. Fedor is on the smaller scale obviously. That fight is as close as even as anyone can get to Fedor in my opinion.
The other analysis’ will be much shorter I promise….
Shields v Miller
I see this being a lot like Miller v Jacare, superior wrestler/grappler vs proficient grappler. I don’t see Shields subbing Miller however. This gives Miller the chance to make up a lot of points that he’ll surely be behind in the later rounds. If Shields conditioning becomes an issue in the 3rd round, I can definitely see a Miller victory in the later rounds. I think Miller has the edge in stand up and against a gassed Shields that edge could win him the fight. However that’s all dependent on whether Shields gasses and doesn’t in the process wear Miller down just as much. I predict…
Shields by UD
Mousasi v Sokoudjou
The first few minutes of this fight will be really exciting, that’s until Sokou’s gas tank empties out and he’s left panting and then laying face down on the mat. Mousasi will weather the early storm and return fire and probably end it in a much similar fashion as he did to Babalu.
Mousasi by GnP stoppage: Late RD1
Werdum v Silva
I think Werdum will actually take this fight. Granted his wrestling is sub par, Silva’s takedown defense is just as poor. I think if the fight hits the ground once in Werdum’s favor it’ll be over. However, Silva will win if this fight stays on the feet. If Silva gets top position, I’m not so sure. I think Werdum has the advantage anywhere on the ground and expect Silva to do what he can to stay off the mat.
Werdum by Sub: RD 2

